Process and impact evaluation of a complex market development programme
Over the five year period (2013-18) of the PrOpCom (Promoting Pro-poor Opportunities in Commodities and Services Markets) Mai-karfi programme, we are delivering an independent process and impact evaluation of its achievements in relation to key OECD Development Assistance Committee evaluation criteria.
PrOpCom Mai-karfi operates under the M4P (Making Markets Work for the Poor) approach of changing market systems in order to address inequitable growth. It builds on the positive experience of its predecessor programme in Nigeria and aims to increase the incomes of 650,000 poor men and women in northern Nigeria by stimulating sustainable growth in selected rural markets to make them more inclusive for poor people.
Our evaluation combines quantitative and qualitative survey methods to assess the impact of the PropCom Mai-karfi programme. In relation to M4P, our work is helping build an evidence base on the relevance, efficiency, impact and sustainability of M4P programmes, providing guidance on what measures are effective and thereby informing future developments.
Our evaluation is drawing on quantitative beneficiary level data, collected from 3,800 farmers and small rural enterprises, as well as qualitative key informant interviews (KIIs), focus group discussions (FGDs) and case studies. This evidence is being used to build up a picture of the programme in action, and to set out, revise, and substantiate or invalidate the programme Theory of Change. The evaluation will used contribution analysis to construct a ‘contribution story’ and to come to robust conclusions about how and to what extent Propcom did (or did not) contribute to observed outcomes. The evaluation has been designed with flexibility built in since Propcom itself is a flexible programme by design.
The evaluation provides in-depth analysis of the programme’s contribution towards raising household incomes, and seeks to understand the relationship between the M4P approach, poverty reduction and systemic change within markets.